Is 2025 a Good Year to Start a Coffee Shop? You May Be Surprised.

2025 Might not seem like the obvious year to start a coffee shop business. With news cycles full of economic uncertainty, many aspiring entrepreneurs ask, “Is 2025 really a good year to open a coffee shop?” The surprising answer is yes. Specialty coffee consumption in the U.S. has reached record highs, and independent coffee shops are capturing more demand than ever. Despite the headlines, customer interest keeps climbing, and market forecasts show continued growth. For those ready to launch, 2025 offers stronger opportunities than many expect.

So, is 2025 really a good year to start a coffee shop? Let’s explore the surprising data and market trends that show why this could be your best moment to move forward with your coffee business dream.

The Shift That Changed Everything

According to the National Coffee Association, 46% of U.S. adults had a specialty coffee yesterday. That is the highest in more than 14 years, and for the first time ever, it surpasses traditional coffee at 42%.

This marks a cultural shift. Specialty coffee is no longer niche; it is mainstream. Customers expect quality, craft, and choice. And the momentum is building: The U.S. coffee shop market is forecast to grow 5.5% annually through 2029, outpacing the broader economy, according to QY Research. Independent industry reporting also points to continued U.S. outlet expansion, with drive-thru and convenience formats playing a major role.

How to Start a Coffee Shop in 2025: Choose Your Format

Your first big decision is your business model. Both brick-and-mortar cafés and mobile coffee businesses have clear strengths and trade-offs.

Brick-and-Mortar Café

The classic coffee shop model offers stability, a permanent presence, and the chance to create a true community hub. Unlike mobile operations, a brick-and-mortar café allows you to create an immersive brand experience. Customers interact not only with your drinks but also with your space, design, and service, which elevates perception of your brand and builds long-term loyalty.

While brick-and-mortar shops are typically more involved and more expensive to launch up front, the long-term payoff can be much higher. With a consistent location and hours, you can steadily grow your customer base and train repeat behaviors that bring people back week after week. This predictability is a sharp contrast to the challenges of mobile coffee businesses, where operators must constantly chase customers and manage variables like weather, event cancellations, or location permits.

Another major advantage is throughput. A well-designed café can serve more guests in less time compared to mobile formats, especially when drive-thru or pickup lanes are added. This increased efficiency compounds over time and can drive stronger revenue growth. Finally, a successful location often acts as a launch pad for expansion. A strong first café builds brand recognition that makes it easier to open and grow into additional locations, since customers may already be familiar with your business and eager to follow.

Mobile Coffee Business (Truck, Trailer, or Cart)

A mobile coffee business offers agility that brick-and-mortar shops cannot. With a coffee truck, trailer, or cart, you can position yourself at high-traffic events, festivals, or commuter hubs, pivot quickly if a location underperforms, and keep startup costs lower. This flexibility allows new operators to test markets and build a following without committing to a lease.

The greatest strength of mobile coffee businesses is how they support proof of concept. You can validate whether you actually enjoy running a coffee business, experiment with your menu, and gain direct customer feedback on what sells best. More importantly, you start building brand recognition and collecting sales numbers. These real-world metrics can be invaluable when approaching banks or investors for funding, because they demonstrate traction and lower risk.

At Texas Coffee School, we often recommend utilizing mobile coffee businesses as a calculated first step in a growth pathway. The goal is not necessarily to stay mobile long-term, but to use it as a risk reducing launch pad into brick-and-mortar. Once you transition into a café with its own commercial kitchen, your truck, trailer, or cart can operate from your location, eliminating commissary expenses and inconveniences. From there, your mobile unit becomes a powerful brand extension—a way to reach new audiences, seed awareness in untapped areas, and drive additional revenue at community events or private bookings.

We dive much deeper into this strategy and others in our 3-Day Coffee Business Master Class®.

Coffee Shop Startup Checklist

1. Is the area growing with a large enough customer base?
2. Are your beverage mix and throughput targets realistic?
3. Does your cost structure fit profitability benchmarks?
4. Do you have a unique and defensible brand advantage?

From Classroom to Coffee Shop

Many of our most successful Coffeepreneurs® once stood exactly where you are today, excited about opening a coffee business but unsure how to start. Over and over, graduates tell us the same thing: the combination of immersive, hands-on learning, our nearly 300-page binder packed with highly specific resources, and the clear, step-by-step way our teachers guide the curriculum gave them the confidence and clarity to move forward. This foundation helped them avoid costly mistakes, shorten their learning curve, and launch with proven systems and a success-focused mindset from day one.

Your Fastest Path to Start

All of these insights are built into the 3-Day Coffee Business Master Class® at Texas Coffee School. More than just coffee training, it is a complete launch toolkit refined from more than a decade of helping independent coffee shop owners succeed.

If you have been waiting for the right time, 2025 is it.

Learn more about the 3-Day Coffee Business Master Class® and take your first step toward owning your coffee business today.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is 2025 a good year to open a coffee shop?

A: Yes. Specialty coffee consumption in the U.S. is at record highs, with 46% of adults drinking it daily, surpassing traditional coffee. The U.S. market is projected to grow 5.5% annually through 2029, meaning 2025 is a strong opportunity to start a coffee business.

Q: Should I start with a brick-and-mortar café or a mobile coffee business?

A: Both have advantages. A café builds community and long-term stability, while mobile formats like trucks or carts are more flexible and cost-effective. Many entrepreneurs use mobile first as a launch pad into a café, reducing risk and proving their concept before scaling.

Q: What are the startup advantages of a mobile coffee truck or cart?

A: Mobile coffee businesses keep startup costs lower, allow rapid market testing, and help you build brand recognition. They provide proof of concept and valuable sales data, which can strengthen your case with banks or investors and make the transition into brick-and-mortar smoother.

Q: How can I learn the step-by-step process to start a coffee shop?

A: The 3-Day Coffee Business Master Class® at Texas Coffee School covers everything from barista training to business planning. It equips you with proven systems and a clear launch pathway, giving you the tools and confidence to avoid mistakes and succeed faster.

Q: What is the fastest path to becoming a successful coffee shop owner?

A: By combining hands-on training with structured business systems. Texas Coffee School’s 3-Day Coffee Business Master Class® provides a complete launch toolkit refined over a decade, helping aspiring entrepreneurs move quickly from idea to profitable coffee shop ownership.